The CoE Numerai Newsletter - Edition #18
November 2023
Meme of the Month
by VojtaK
NumerBlox Bounty
The CoE's new bounty system has kicked off with a bounty from the makers of Numerblox, perfect_fit and jrai. A short summary of the bounty from their forum post:
"Numerblox is a library to simplify software engineering around Numerai inference pipelines. Its older sibling is being used by the CrowdCent 1 models, and perfect_fit and jrai are interested in feedback on this new version."
If you are interested in taking on this bounty, post your results in their forum post. (Numerblox Bounty)
Scoring Changes
The Numerai team has announced a move to CORR and Meta Model Contribution (MMC) based scoring to replace the True Contribution (TC) metric starting on Jan 2 2024. This change also comes with a move to fixed multipliers of 0.5xCORR and 2xMMC, which will also be used to determine Season rankings.
A few key reasons for the change were outlined by team member Numerark:
MMC is more stable than TC
MMC is locally calculable while TC is not
We realized our most stable performance when paying MMC
Check out Numerarks forum post for an in depth explanation of the intuitions behind this move back to MMC (MMC staking starts Jan 2, 2024).
If you’re looking for a starting point to learn more about MMC or how to locally compute it to evaluate your models, check out the following forum posts (shoutout to nasdaqjockey !):
Teager Target Release
A new set of targets has been added to the most recent Rain data-set, most notably the “Teager” target.
From MikeP’s forum post on the release:
Teager is one of the most significant targets Numerai has released to date. It handles risk in a totally new way versus all previous Numerai targets making it uncorrelated and uniquely additive as a target to train on.
Models trained on either the Teager target or on a blend of the Teager and Cyrus targets are showing very strong results when compared to the example predictions, so consider looking into them next season!
For more on how models trained on Teager have been performing, check our these forum posts:
Dashboards
Two new community-made dashboards were released last month!
Shiny Numerati by ai-joe gives an in-depth view to model performance and payouts. Go check out how much you’ve burned this year!
YAND: Yet Another Numerai Dashboard by numerologist focuses on comparing multiple users’ performances versus each other; most notably if you’re being outperformed by the benchmark models!
Council of Elders Voting
Congratulations to the two newest members of the Council of Elders (CoE) wigglemuse and ai_Joe! Having captured 33% and 49% of the vote respectively, they will be filling the two vacant seats on the council.
Big thanks to everyone who voted and to Arbitrage and Jrai for their time on the CoE.
CoE Transaction Report
Nov 16th 2023 -387 NMR Around the world with the Numerati travel expenses
All transactions from the CoE wallet can be viewed at the following link using SAFE.
Disclaimer: This is not an official Numerai newsletter. It is sponsored by the Numerai CoE, a decentralized autonomous organization. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information but there are no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy of the contents.