The CoE Numerai Newsletter- Edition #1

August 1st "Fireside Edition" Q3 2021

by wacax


The First Official CoE Numerai Monthly Newsletter Is Here!

Proposal approval and initial funding for the CoE Sponsored Numerai Monthly Newsletter was approved by the CoE on 07-21-21. Funds confirmed transferred to proposal writer “Aventurine” who will also be the author of the newsletter.

Initial Funding Transaction Confirmation Link- Etherscan


The Results Are In

The CoE election concluded on 05/09/2021 and the 7 elders have been chosen! Let all of us welcome our new CoE!

Multisig Wallet addresses associated with the members follow:

arbitrage- 0x1A74B363AFcA2B36df682C488DbC26Ac26740e0E

jrb- 0x656e6CCf4777d115e8c1750D51dea23F14DCFf18

jrAi- 0x2BE52b4429DBDfEFAd766ddDdd16ac0777476EDB

hb- 0x669d2e9da442D7eD987c82206401C09F4562eb44

themicon- 0x9e4C0C42939460273D90b2CAaab311D61a5Be16c

uuazed- 0x99210E8cCF20EEE45DAB6133d706E54361e6806f

surajp- 0x37A2BF562BdB6ac72c1e91cddCB6874Ce049d0aF

Here is the address link to the multisig wallet:

Gnosis Safe CoE Multisig Wallet


The CoE: What is it and why was it created?

On Mar 22, 2021 Richard Craib, CEO and Founder of Numerai, tweeted:

I'm going to make a DAO called the Numerai Council of Elders which will be a multisig wallet controlled by elite members of the Numerai Community. Numerai will give it initial $$ but have no role whatsoever in where that $$ goes.

This tweet took many by surprise and several Numerai tournament participants on twitter asked Richard directly, What will the funds be used for?

Richard Replied

Advancing the interests of Numerai and the maintenance of international peace and security

A perfect answer.

It took almost 2 more months after the initial tweet was sent out but the Council of Elders would eventually be voted in by members of the Numerai community in early May of 2021. 7 members were picked so that for any proposal to be accepted, 4 of 7 signatures on a multisig wallet would be needed for any passing proposal. A multisig wallet was created and initial funding by Richard Craib was secured within the wallet in the amount of 226.6 NMR and 3.7 ETH. The CoE also received donations from tournament participants ssh, crowdcent and jordi. A proposal framework was then created on the Numerai community forum to try and help keep things streamlined.

On July 26th Richard tweeted:

Sent $100k worth of NMR to Numerai’s DAO, The Council Of Elders. Will they get more than $100k worth of value with the money? I think $1m+ is very doable. Then next transfer is $1m of NMR and so we decentralize.

2,779.3218 NMR was confirmed sent to the multisig wallet with transaction hash: 0xb710f2211e279c7623a0f7a305783a0d3db4a9604c742e09fbc6b932814ae50d

Many proposals and community votes have been made in the CoE section of the Numerai forums since creation. Several of them have already been funded fully or partially funded to start up longer term projects.

Fully Funded or Partially Funded Projects:

  • Reimbursements were sent for multisig wallet setup and gas costs. Blocks of 0.14 ETH sent to CoE members and 0.10159 ETH sent for wallet set up.

  • A proposal by hb for a Kashi Lending/Borrowing Tutorial was taken up by jorijnsmit and completed(More on this below.) 5 NMR sent

  • A proposal by restrading was submitted for something many people inside and outside the tournament has asked for continuously over Numerai’s existance… A Numerai Community Marketplace for the buying and selling of models and prediction files. The First 26 NMR funding tranche was sent from the CoE multisig wallet on 07/19/21. Second tranche of 36 NMR was sent 07-26-21. The domain name has also been chosen though voting by the community for this project with the clear winner being Numerbay.ai

  • A proposal by jorijnsmit was created and funded to submit a portion of NMR from the multisig for Kashi/Sushiswap liquidity. 200 sent for “cook” on 06/27/21 and 50 returned back to fund projects on 07/21/21

  • After some community and CoE discussion, user liz was sent initial funding for supporting signals submission development in R and will be streaming everything live on Twitch. liz will also be working on the github to create more example models in R. 32 NMR sent 07/21/21

  • A proposal for starting a CoE sponsored monthly newsletter by Aventurine was approved and initial funding sent 25 NMR on 07/21/21

Currently in the pipeline and awaiting further discussion and approval/dismissal by the CoE:

  • CoE elder surajp has submitted a proposal to make an incentive based task on 1729.com for user engagement proposing $2000 in NMR for this task. As a voting member of the CoE, a vote of 4 of 6 is needed to pass.

  • Participant bensch submitted proposal for a Signals Python Example Using Open Sattelite Data

  • CoE elder arbitrage has submitted a proposal for the CoE to sponsor his “Office Hours with Arbitrage” (OHwA) and his twitch “Daily Scores and Chill” (DSC). It was disclosed by arbitrage that Numerai itself was sponsoring his streams before the CoE was formed, but he was limited to not talking about certain topics. As a voting member of the CoE, a vote of 4 of 6 is needed to pass. Currently,the community vote on the forum is signaling towards a “No” vote for this project with 24 No votes and 18 Yes votes, but no official CoE vote has taken place. Stay tuned.

  • CoE elder jrai has submitted a proposal to retrospectively fund jrdi in the amount of $1750 in NMR to continue an OpenSignals Development. This is an open source library with goal of enabling new users to quickly download data (from any source) and submit predictions to the Signals tournament. See link to github: OpenSignals Github. As a voting member of the CoE, a vote of 4 of 6 is needed to pass.

Community Inputs:

Participant objectscience placed 4 community input votes into the Council of Elders forum channel:

CoE Salary, CoE term length, CoE term limit and CoE number of members

The voting closed for the first 3 on 07-30-21, the majority voting results are as follows:

  • CoE Term Length: 62% for 12 Months

  • CoE Term Limit: 40% for 2 terms, eligible again after one term gap or immediately if there is a lack of candidates.

  • CoE Salary: 57% for No Salary

Voting for the number of members poll ends on 08/15/21. Currently 56% of voters state they would like to keep the current number at 7. The CoE will discuss further and make a decision soon. Stay tuned.

The future of the CoE is bright!


Multisig Transaction Report

up to date as of 07-31-21


SushiSwap/Kashi- NMR Lending is Here!

After months of sporadic chatter about the possibility of NMR getting listed somewhere for lending and borrowing, it has finally happened. The NMR/USDC lending/borrowing pair has been listed on SushiSwap!

On July 3rd 2021, hb submitted a proposal to solicit proposals from someone in the Numerai community to write a Kashi NMR Lending/Borrowing tutorial for a bounty of 5 NMR. jorijnsmit answered the call. He created a two part tutorial on Medium.

Part 1: Kashi NMR Lending: Earn APR Without Staking on a Model

Part 2: Kashi NMR Borrowing: Stake on Your Model Without NMR Price Exposure

Here is the link to the lend/borrow pair: SushiSwap Kashi NMR/USDC Pair

At the time of this writing over 5100 NMR have been lent out with a current value of almost 200k USD!


3x MMC on Numerai Signals

In late May of 2021, Richard stated that 3x MMC was “coming very soon for Numerai Signals”

translation: this means more NMR rewards to original signals on Numerai Signals (ones that have a lot of alpha that's uncorrelated from everyone else). -Richard

Signals, up until just recently, had 3mo average returns negative. Over the last several months, Richard and the team at Numerai have been looking at many different angles to try to find out a way to increase payouts for the Signals Tournament. After some researching, CORR20 was recently found to be giving higher scores than the standard CORR currently being used for payouts. Although there is no option to be payed out on this CORR20 metric, you can currently monitor the performance on the leaderboard and models page.

For now, as a way to be rewarded with a higher payout, MMC x3 is now a staking option as of May 28th 2021!

Also, On July 3rd 2021, Richard stated in the Numerai RocketChat:

We added a new target called target_20d to the historical_targets file. This is the target we use for CORR20 on Signals. When you click "download example" on Signals, you'll receive these new targets historically. Even people trying to do well on CORR on Signals might benefit from trying some models trained against this target.

Signals models and staking has been on the rise

There are almost 300 staked models and now over 10k NMR staked. Best of all, Avg 3mo returns are now positive!

If you are looking for a new challenge and a payout factor of 1, this is the place to go!

Signals Docs


New Office!

On June 11th 2021, Richard Tweeted that Numerai has a new office location in San Fransisco. Right next to the Golden Gate Bridge and within walking distance to several hiking trails, I have been told that the crew loves it and are very lucky to have snagged it up!


“Steak” Management and New Scores Pipeline

Have you noticed anything different recently while checking your models?

It’s finally starting to happen…

First, you may have noticed small changes like a new fancy looking chart in your model page…

If you dig a little deeper under the hood you will find something amazing…

A bit of “steak” management!

Under Stake management you will now have the option of compounding earnings or Removing those earnings from your stake directly in your wallet

Awesome!

and…if you thought that was all you would be wrong, On July 16th 2021, Admin ark announced the “newest addition to the models page”

Scoring Status

“wen scores?”

Click on the link and BOOM! It looks great!

Is this the possible death of the “wen scores” memes?……Never!

meme by oftfrfbf

HA!


Fireside Chat Q3 2021

See the full video here: Numerai Fireside Chat with Richard Craib (founder and CEO of Numerai) and Anson Chu (CTO) | 2021 Q3

“Some things we are thinking about and some things we are working on recently is a new way to show how much you are truly helping the fund, something called “True” contribution(TC)”—Richard Craib’s Opening Remarks

  • “True” contribution(TC)

Richard and the Numerai team is beginning work on a new metric to follow soon. An even more “black box” metric than MMC, True Contribution will tell you how much you are ACTUALLY helping the fund directly. It could even possibly be utilized down the road for payouts. The possibilities are endless. TC could even be calculated as contribution to the fund by user over the classic AND the signals together. Wow.

  • Diagnostics

“We want to move the learning curve up for people to be faster”

New diagnostics tools will be coming soon

  • Data Release Plan

Anson states on current status:

  1. Building the data on the back-end takes time

  2. On the data science side, it takes time to decide what data specifically we want to release

A new data API is coming soon but will take time. Numerai does not want to break existing pipelines for participants. Diagnostics tools will be created as well. They are looking at possibilities to even test model diagnostics mid week.

They want new data to be added weekly as well, a big move away from monthly. They also want new training data weekly as well and of course, even more targets!

Slido Highlights:

  • Payouts are low, how will you improve? Richard’s response-”This is sort of a ”loaded” question, we have currently paid out millions and payouts on Numerai are still high compared to all other competitions. In regards to payout factor though the demand is very high. Changes could come in the future.”

  • wen 3200 features? “Don’t know exact number of features yet but there will be many more features. First release could be in as early as one month from now”

  • More “show stopping” site and scoring bugs recently, what are you doing to stop that? Anson-”Things are getting more serious as we have been getting many new members. Safety and reliability need to go hand in hand. The team is growing which is adding more firepower to the issue. Its a process but we are working hard on it.”

  • What is the timeline to boost fund AUM? “We are not going to talk about it… dramatic pause…well we are going to talk about the fund…soon.

    Richard states they have been looking into regulations and hedge fund structures recently. He has seen, for example from Pantera Capital, that they show individual performance and even have an Invest Now button on their site.

    “In the next couple weeks I will be changing the fund to a 506(c)”—Richard

    This will give us more freedom to talk about performance. Its morally right for users to see how their work is helping the fund

  • Will targets with different timeline targets be added? “Yes, there will be more that will be longer and different”

  • Wen val 4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and beyond? “Testset targets BOOOOM maybe lets make the whole testset valadation :)”

  • 3xMMC regular tournament? “We have thought about it. Could be possible after researching “True Contribution” a bit more.”

  • Is erasure bay dead? “No one has used it in months. There was an initial boom and then dropped off, especially with “gas” costs. We wanted to show there could be other uses with the contracts. We think its still alive in the background, could become something more later. It could make a come back.”

  • NumeraiCon? “Probably Q4. Still researching areas to host and other details. More details to come soon”

  • Any thoughts to measure “skin in the game” besides stake weighted? Possible Reputation Weighted? “Nothing at this time, the stake weighted meta model is working”

  • Should I invite my friends to participate? “YES! You should also share your ideas more as well with the community”

  • For Signals, Isn’t it better, in terms of economic efficiency, to separate the data providing and cleaning from the modeling? Anson loved the question. “There will at some point be a marketplace where other modelers could buy signals and data streams. This is something that we want to see”

  • Will Numerai provide historical ticker mapping for Signals? Or at least name changing history or ISIN for historical tickers? “Certain data we have we are unable to distribute but if the CoE could get it done and be created by the community, we could “check it.” Something like this is worth A LOT of money. Maybe 10 thousand dollars”

  • Future use of Numerai treasury? “We are close to final stages of Numeraire token sales. We have written about this. We were not going to sell more than 3M NMR and its close. The rest will be for tournament payouts etc. There could be a few more smaller token sales but that’s it. That’s why we currently care more about AUM and moving the project further”

  • Is Signals now free of major bugs? “YES”

  • When self custody wallet for staking? “Its on the roadmap and we want to work on it. We need to rewrite our contracts. There is a lot to be done but we want to do it. Its going to be a pretty long path. Its going to be important. We want in the future for people be able to build on our contracts as well. Its coming.”

  • NMR has been around for 4+ years yet ranked 200 by market cap. Why has it not been marketed properly to get more stakes and actual $$ in the fund? “We don’t want to be a project ran on big marketing budgets like you see with other tokens and are still very much focused on the engineering. We have seen a lot of growth in user base without ramping up marketing.”

  • Is the Classic tournament a good stepping stone to the Signals tournament for new users? “YES”

  • FNC Payouts? Richard states he “likes the thought. Some users would also probably like it. “TC” could also be correlated possibly with FNC but we will know more after more research.”


Other News

  • Recent conversation between Richard Craib and Foresight Institute

Staking, Signals, and Other Techniques for Intelligence Coordination | Richard Craib, NumerAI

  • Numerai Community Signals Roundtable Video Playlist

Numerai Signals community videos

  • Numerai CLI 0.3.0 Dropped

  • Offical Numerai Telegram is now announcements only

  • A curated list of awesome numerai libraries, tutorials and other resources was recently uploaded to github from CoE member uuazed. The idea is to transfer this to the CoE org on github once it’s a bit more complete.

    Contributions are obviously welcome!

Awesome Numerai

  • Any Julia lang developers? User pacio on the forums is looking for anyone who’s been using Julia for Numerai. “To support my fellow Julia developers, I created a version of uuazed/numerapi in Julia”

Numerai Julia API

  • User nyuton submitted a topic post to the Numerai forums: Feature selection by Marcos Lopez de Prado. Currently it has been viewed over 2 thousand times! Check it out and contribute below.

Feature selection by Marcos Lopez de Prado


Fun Memes:

by surajp

by hone5com


Disclaimer: This is not an official Numerai newsletter. It is sponsored by the Numerai CoE, a decentralized autonomous organization. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information but there is no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy of the contents.