by ia_ai_Joe
Signals Earn Campaign
On Dec 4th, it was announced that Numerai would be starting a Signals Earn Campaign. You are now able to start earning NMR rewards for completing Signals quests such as submitting diagnostics, making a submission, creating models, and increasing stake. Existing Signals participants who have already reached any of these milestones were retroactively airdropped $NMR stake credits. The first Earn campaign launch is for Signals only, however they plan to bring this to other tournaments in the future. This campaign is completely optional and its a way to encourage Tournament participants to learn more about Signals.
The Signals example scripts repo has also been updated. The new example scripts repo utilizes OpenSignals (h/t CoE), and has been simplified and split into two parts: example data pipeline and example model. Visit https://github.com/numerai/signals-example-scripts for more details
November/December Updates
Tournament 20D2L Scoring: Numerai announced that the Tournament would begin scoring predictions against a 20D2L target. This change does not require any action from us. It does not affect when or what you submit and does not require anyone to retrain their models. The most significant thing users will notice is that the scoring schedule is shifted one day later. For example, rounds will begin scoring on Fridays instead of Thursdays.
Some things to notice here are:
There are 20 days of cumulative returns we use to score predictions, i.e. “20D” in 20D2L
The first two (2) days of returns (Mon/Tues) are ignored, i.e. “2L” in 20D2L
It takes 2 days to process returns and report scores on them
As compared to our current scoring system (20D1L), you’ll notice the entire schedule is simply shifted one (1) day later. This means the first scoring day of the round will move from Thursdays to Fridays, and newer rounds will resolve on Thursdays, not Wednesday.
It will take 4 weeks to fully transition to this new schedule, during this period:
Stake changes (increase/decrease/etc.) will take 1 extra day to resolve in the first week
20D1L rounds will resolve each Wednesday like normal
Scores on each Thursday are for 3 overlapping rounds (not 4 like usual)
The new 20D2L rounds will start scoring each Friday
After this four (4) week transition period ends, we will only have 20D2L rounds actively scoring; round resolution days will be Thursdays and new rounds will start scoring on Fridays.
While this change is primarily a schedule-oriented shift, note the difference between 20D1L and 20D2L targets in the data. The “target” in the legacy data (v2) is a 20D1L target and the “target_nomi_20” is a 20D2L target. These targets are 83% correlated in training data and our research indicates that models trained on the legacy 20D1L target perform about as well as those trained on 20D2L target, so the difference in scores and payouts should be very small if you have any models trained and predicting on legacy data. If you have a legacy model and are still concerned about this change, you can read more about the newest dataset here and check out our example scripts (which use the new data) here
Numerai CLI 0.3.3
Numerai has released a fix for Numerai CLI with version 0.3.3 that correctly handles Trigger IDs, which are used to ensure your nodes submit correctly. Previously, this caused recently deployed nodes to show an error, but only impacted testing and internal metrics. If you see an error message like “Your node did not submit the Trigger ID …” when running “numerai node test”, then this patch is for you.
It also includes an extra node size option “cpu-xs” which runs your nodes with just 0.5 virtual CPUs and 1 GB of memory. If you’re an efficiency enthusiast that has squeezed every ounce of performance from your code, then you might want to try this out.
“Christmas” Data Release-Postponed
On Dec 6th it was announced there would be a holiday data release around Christmas.
Numerai will release some new features. They expect a few hundred new features to be added to the dataset. Just like their previous data release, using the new features is optional and will not break any legacy integrations.
The 310 feature set (v2) and the 1050 feature set (v3.1) will still be available through the website and through the API as always. The new feature set (v3.2) will be available in a standalone file only through the API and not through any zip files downloaded via the website.
On Dec 20th, mikeP announced a postponement to the release
We have decided not to release new features this month as previously planned. Instead, we will be pushing the improvements that were planned for this month to go into the March data release. This is expected to have a few new features, but more importantly to have all of the test targets released as well. We'll give more information about that release as we get closer to that time, but for now just enjoy the holidays! -mikeP
[Updates] NumerBay - The Community Marketplace
Dec 5th- The following includes changes from the voting branch and master branch.
Added workaround fix for the payment timing issue
Made daily scores update more robust to network errors
Added more model metrics to display
Completed post-determined stake-weighted voting
Added some admin endpoints for better maintenance
Moved QE’s dashboard from the home page to the “apps” section
UI code cleaning
Other minor fixes and improvements
Work plan is in post #2
Next week to continue improving the user experience
Dec 12th- The following includes changes from the voting branch 1 and master branch.
Fixed a stake snapshot bug in the voting app, added support for leaderboard cache time travel and equal-weighted voting with stake requirement in the voting app
Other minor fixes
Work plan is in post #2
Next week to continue fixing issues and improving user experience
Dec 19th- The following includes changes from the coupon branch.
Prepared the voting app for live election testing
Started working on coupon system (WIP)
Started major backend code refactoring (WIP)
Other minor fixes and improvements
Work plan is in post #2
Next week to continue working on the coupon system and optimizing user experience
Dec 26th- The following includes changes from the coupon branch and master branch 1.
Coupon system tests and live deployment
Added support for customizing “featured products” by sellers
Major backend code refactoring
Improved test coverage to 75%
UI dependency security updates
Other minor fixes and improvements
Work plan is in post #2
Next week to work on improving UI
[Proposal] Numerai Youtube Tutorial Series- Funded
User malding summited a proposal to have a YouTube series he created funded by the CoE. 92% of the community voted yes and the CoE funded the project.
See the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj1MmHvm1iYg8zqqpNIsWig
There is already a couple great introduction videos. More to come
ENS to NMR- First NumerBay Vote
To test the new Numerbay voting mechanism, the first proposal for a community vote was submitted by the CoE on: What should CoE do with the ENS claim?
in a dazzling feat of coordination, the CoE multisig exchanged its ENS for 265 NMR: https://etherscan.io/tx/0xb1a49d5dad7be2a3524fe28a8722f9766792c4043a896877cc0862d69799cfe0
hb To Step Down From The CoE
On Dec 9th hb posted to the RocketChat:
I plan to step down from the Council of Elders and put my seat up for a vote. We’ll do a high-profile test of Numerbay voting. The plan is to follow a similar process to how we did the original vote. First I’ll create a forum post in just a minute where anyone can nominate another participant with the nomination period lasting one week. Nominated participants must accept their nomination in the same thread too. Then I’ll create a poll of all accepted nominees on Numerbay. Each account that is currently staked (any amount) on Round 293 will get one vote. We’ll allow for one week of voting. Then whoever wins will take over from me, maybe on Jan 1st. Their address will be added to the multi-sig, my address will be removed, and I’ll return the remainder of the gas allocation we each got back to the treasury (about 0.09 ETH remaining for me from the initial 0.14 ETH).My hope is that now that we have some infrastructure and a better understanding of what we collectively want from a Council of Elders, we can get someone in my seat who has more time to dedicate to this cool effort. Along those lines, a very very useful thing to include when you accept your nomination is the amount of time you can offer, both an “average hours per week” and a “maximum on a good week” if a larger project opportunity arises. If I get nominated again, I may accept it, but I’ll be upfront about the time I can contribute currently and you all can weigh that. I think that some of the other elders are considering rolling off soon too, possibly the community will want to vote on all the seats again since we’ll have a more formal way of doing the voting now. I suggested that we do them one at a time, on a monthly cadence to avoid too much turnover too quickly given that there’s a real treasury at stake now. That also allows us to tweak the process, for example, maybe we’ll want a runoff of the top 2 or 3 vote-getters if there are too many nominees.
This forum post was placed to place and accept nominations: https://forum.numer.ai/t/nominations-for-open-council-of-elders-seat-dec-9-through-dec-16-2021/4598
Several nominations were placed into the forum post. All except one(myself-aventurine) declined nominations for various reasons(work, personal, time commitment, etc)
As a part of my acceptance I posted:
My one issue as stated above is I currently write the monthly CoE newsletters. I would guess if nominated and selected to take the role, I would need to transfer this paid duty so someone willing to take my place unless approved to continue which has been a hot topic for the CoE. I am willing to step down as the newsletter writer if selected and I would find a suitable replacement for my current duty.
The general community and CoE felt there was not a conflict for me to keep working on the monthly newsletters and being paid to do it if nominated to the role.
Although only myself accepted nomination, to continue testing the voting feature on Numerbay, a vote was placed on the site.
Here were the results: Total stake for individual votes was 13103.3807 NMR
Thank you all for trusting in me!
CoE Gnosis Transactions Dec 2021
-9.79 NMR Newsletter
-43 NMR Numerbay
-12 NMR Numerbay
-40 YouTube Series
ENS to NMR Swap
-61 NMR Numerbay
ADD AVENTURINE TO MULTISIG- address:0x41DD1c6338e5b3cdF9Dc69e20DaD9834aE36A6D3
Remove hb
+0.0763 ETH Unused portion Gas Refund by hb
-37 Numerbay
Crypto Prices Go Haywire on CoinMarketCap.com
Funky price data made us multimillionaires/billionaires for a bit earlier in the month. We all know $NMR will get there one of these days.
[Community Release] Azure Compute for Numerai predictions
qeintelligence released a github repo with everything needed to get Azure Compute for Numerai predictions up and running.
See here: https://github.com/jos1977/numerai_compute/
The highlights of Azure Compute are:
Docker containers: it makes use of Docker Hub for storing the docker private container that contains the inference code. Example python code (that is based on the example model from the team) and powershell code are in the repo
Azure Container Instance + Logic App: it makes use of these 2 resources to have the webhook functionality working, every week the container will be started, and after uploading the predictions it will terminate to save cost. For the example model (38 features minimal set) it is enough to have 2.5 Gb ram reseverd in Azure Container Instance, which means <<1 dollar per month. Ofcourse, depending on what you want to do more Ram may need to be reserved (or GPU instead of CPU but for inference I think most of us dont need that power).
Fully automated powershell scripts in the repo to provision the Azure resources, you only need to fill in required information like subscription, credentials, etc…
Other News and Extras
Truth Machines Against the Gerontocracy with Richard Craib of Numerai
Disclaimer: This is not an official Numerai newsletter. It is sponsored by the Numerai CoE, a decentralized autonomous organization. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information but there is no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy of the contents.